Let me wish everyone a Happy and Prosperous New Year!
During this festive season, our unions do their part to bring cheer to fellow citizens. The Singapore Maritime Officers’ Union and its co-operative Wavelink have a long association with the Henderson Senior Citizens’ Home. Today SMOU members host the senior citizens to lunch. Many other Singaporeans also share their cheer to other groups of Singaporeans. It is as it should be, and I am happy that the spirit of sharing remains strong in our community.
Perhaps next year there will be more to share.
The official government forecast is for 3-5% growth. Some private sector analysts have been much more bullish, predicting more than 6% growth. If the momentum of the past few months continues, there is no reason why the upper end of the government’s forecast cannot be achieved.
Every two months or so, I get a report from our industrial relations officers serving the unions in the manufacturing sector and some service sub-sectors. It is their job to tell me what they see on the ground, in the factories. I received the latest report just before Chinese New Year.
They reported that most of the industries are performing well. The strong performance in aerospace, marine, electronics, precision engineering and chemicals and pharmaceuticals continue. The workers in the construction sector, however, remain pessimistic.
Our industrial relations officers reported that companies were expecting more orders in the next six months. Production is already ramping up and more workers are working overtime. After a year with little overtime earnings, this development brings cheer to them because it means they will take home more each month. There will be more jingle in their pockets.
There is also caution expressed by workers. Our companies report fierce competition from lower cost countries. Some managers have indicated that they may have to shift some lower-end production to China.
Reflecting this caution, employers are recruiting in smaller numbers, or recruiting contract workers instead of permanent workers. They do not want to be caught with surplus workers should the business cycle turn down unexpectedly. Our unions also view with some concern the change in practice of some employers to more widespread use of contract workers in sectors where permanent employment seem more appropriate.
Our unions expect retrenchments to slow down. The figures for the last quarter of 2003 were mercifully fewer than we had feared. Just over 700 workers in unionized companies were retrenched, bringing the year’s total to just over 6,300. Projecting for the country as a whole, probably about 16,000 workers were retrenched last year.
However some sectors are still not recovering, so there will be retrenchments this year, but fewer than last year. With companies hiring again, the unemployment rate should fall. I had previously guessed that the unemployment rate will fall to 4%. I think we are on track to achieve this.
Nevertheless, NTUC and our unions consider it a top priority to help the unemployed to find new jobs.
Pooling our resources, we can lift them out of their plight. Our wish is that all families enjoy a better year ahead.
