More than 5 years have passed since the Asian financial crisis. Since then, our economy rebounded sharply, only to fall just as sharply. This shows that the economic cycles are getting shorter.
There are some workers retrenched during the Asian financial crisis who have not found re-employment. Some may have decided to retire, but others have had difficulties finding suitable jobs.
Our job-matching efforts during the current downturn shows that some workers seem not to be able to find suitable jobs. Older ones had greater difficulty. On the other hand, there are jobs that remain unfilled, and employers ask for more foreign workers.
It may be that some of our workers are waiting for better job offers.
Knowing that we are beginning to see structural unemployment, we decided to publish a series of articles in NTUC News. First we published our findings from retrenchments in unionised companies. 42,000 workers were retrenched in the last five years, mainly from the electronics industry. It was not just due to fall in demand, but due to relocation of factories to lower cost countries, particularly China. MIWU members were affected because the companies service the electronics sector. Our message to the unemployed was: The old jobs will not come back. Don't wait, take jobs that are available.
Some people were shocked by our message. Others did not welcome the bad news. 42,000 jobs seem a big number. Yet we were only reporting jobs lost in unionised companies. We did so because we know where the jobs had gone. We did not take the national figures, because we do not know the reasons for retrenchment in non-unionised companies. If we used the national figure, the number of workers retrenched during that period was over 90,000. People would have found this figure even more depressing! Yet, during the same five years, the increase in employment totalled 249,000. So the problem is that some of those retrenched were not re-employed, and it worries us.
We also found that the number of workers retrenched from the services sector was also rising. This was the result of restructuring and consolidation, such as in the financial services sector.
We further published information on new job creation, where they were. For example, the shipyards are doing well. Then new investments in IT, chemicals and biomedical sciences bring in new jobs. Indeed, the investments that EDB has secured would create up to 121,000 jobs over the next five years. Our message was: These are good jobs, but they require higher skills - NTC2 and above.
I am not sure if our messages got through to our workers. Some unionists have asked me: Why do you come out with bad news?
Bad news? As leaders, we have to tell our members the truth. Then workers can make the correct decisions. What are the correct decisions?
If you are not able to upgrade, it is better to take a job suited to the skills you have. Prolonged unemployment will make it even harder for you to find another job.
If you can upgrade, sign up for the programmes that have been put in place to help you. Then you can look forward to earning higher wages.
If you are employed, better take up courses, to stay employable.
Today there are signs of the economy picking up. It is patchy and not broad-based. If there are no dramatic external factors, the recovery will be more broad-based next year. I have to repeat the caveat: no dramatic external factors. Why? There are worries about the US economy, worries about the Middle East, and worries about terrorism. We hope our worries won't come to pass, but we must be realistic enough to acknowledge these threats to our recovery.
Assuming there is a broad-based recovery, there are also some hard facts that we must recognise. We should expect shorter economic cycles, and so more frequent loss of jobs, more periods of unemployment. When we are employed, we should expect wage increases to be more moderate than it had been in the past.
Therefore, there are some things each of us has to do:
Someone asked me: What is the union's role? What can you do for workers?
I see the two most important things unions can do as:
At the same time, we help them cope with the cost of living through our co-operatives keeping prices of essential goods down.
In the past, an economic downturn with large numbers of workers retrenched would mean that union membership would drop. This time, MIWU's membership has increased! Why? Because we have put in place the 'seamless membership' system, so the retrenched workers can continue their membership. At the same time, there is stronger faith in the union, and more people have joined, even if it had only been in the general branch category.
MIWU has benefited from good leadership. Our duty now is to put in place a younger set of leaders to take the union through the next 10 years. It is better to do so now, when the old leaders can provide guidance, then to wait till they can no longer serve. Some new leaders will be elected at this delegates' conference. After that, it will be the responsibility of the new ExCo to shape the team for the future.
I am sure MIWU will grow from strength to strength!
