Sir, thank you for allowing me to join the Debate.
The Budget statements these past few years have focussed on tackling the economic challenges, easing the pain of transition and setting the stage for sustained growth in the future.
This year's Budget statement addresses another key fundamental – how to make sure that there will be enough Singaporeans to populate that future.
Last year, only 37,000 Singaporean babies were born. The overall birth-rate was only 1.37, much lower than the replacement rate of 2.1. If this goes on unchecked, then we will eventually disappear from the face of the earth.
But even before we truly decimate ourselves, there will be other serious implications that we will face.
With fewer babies born each year, will there be enough Singaporeans to defend our country eventually, notwithstanding our aggressive use of technology?
With fewer babies born each year, will there be enough skilled workers to attract investments and anchor jobs here?
If the birth-rate drops with time, then the rate of population aging will increase. At present, 8% of our population is above the age of 65. We projected it will become 20% around 2030. But if the birth-rate keeps dropping, society will become elderly-heavy even faster. How will we support and take care of the elderly? Who will pay the taxes or foot the bill for such care?
These are not idle questions for some distant generation to answer. Many of us might still be around in 2020 or even 2030. It is therefore in our own best interests that we begin to turn the tide sooner rather than later.
More Babies Please
The most direct approach is, of course, to encourage Singaporeans to have more babies. It is direct. But it is not simple.
From the feedback I got from union and grassroots leaders, some of the current ideas being talked about, such as longer maternity leave for mothers, higher subsidies for infant care and childcare, and flexible family-friendly work arrangements should be helpful. By enabling more time for the mother to bond with the child, and by lowering the cost of care the household, it will lower barriers to child-bearing and rearing. This direction is therefore the right one.
The question is over cost-effectiveness, and over who should bear what part of the cost.
Clearly, employees would want any additional maternity leave to be paid leave. They would also like to see significant increases in infant care subsidies so that their cash outlay between infant care and child care is substantially narrowed.
Equally clearly, employers will see any such move as imposing an additional cost and operational burden because they will have to cope with the employee's longer absence as well as employ a substitute in the meantime.
From the perspective of Singaporean couples who already have children, they would want to avail themselves fully of any new incentives. But from the Government's standpoint, incentives should be targeted at encouraging increases over the “natural” outcome, rather than to incur huge deadweight costs.
These are delicate balances to strike. If a workable compromise can be achieved, we will hopefully stem the decline of our birth rate. If the balance is struck wrongly, it will be a huge waste of money and can have other deleterious effects on business and employment.
I urge the Government to give priority to items that are within its direct control, such as infant care and childcare subsidies. In this way, there is no need to hold up all things just because some things cannot be resolved.
At the same time, I urge Employers to take a longer-term view to these efforts. To the extent that they succeed, you would have better assurance of a larger pool of workers in the future. Hence, you can look upon the exercise as one of investing in your own future labour supply rather than cost.
To my fellow Singaporeans, I appeal to you to also look beyond the immediate to your own longer-term needs. While it is good to be able to enjoy better subsidies and incentives, we must also remember that we are ultimately the ones who decide the kind of life and family environment we live in now and in the future, and be responsible for the consequences of our own choices.
Reducing Infant Mortality Further?
In 1960, the infant mortality rate in Singapore was 34.8. Over the decades, reflecting improved economic circumstances and healthcare, it has been greatly brought down. According to MOH statistics, it is below 3 per 1000 births nowadays, or some 120 per 40,000 births. It is among the lowest in the world and is on par with the most advanced nations. So there is limited scope here to work on.
Fewer Abortions?
But there is another area that we should examine. And there is abortions. According to the Ministry of Heath Annual Report 2001, total abortions in Singapore totalled around 13,800 each year from 1997 to 2000. If the latest figures are about the same, then it is a large loss of births in relation to total births of only 37,000 last year. For every 3 babies born, 1 other baby is aborted.
I recognise that abortions are done for many different reasons, ranging from medical, social to economic. Perhaps, not every abortion is unavoidable. By examining the factors behind the abortions in greater detail, we might yet be able to bring down the number. If we can reduce these abortions by a third or a fifth, it would make a significant difference.
More Adoptions?
And even as some Singaporeans abort their pregnancies, there are others who are not able to conceive and who would want to adopt children.
According to a Sunday Times article on 7 March, “ There is no ballpark figure of how many people are in the queue at adoption agencies. But in the last four years, Singaporeans have adopted an average of 700 children a year - 62 per cent of whom are foreign-born.”
In this regard, we can study how adoption processes can be configured to facilitate such matching, especially among Singaporeans.
As for the many childless couples who have sought to adopt children from outside Singapore , I read from the press that two voluntary welfare organisations have been appointed to pilot new processes vis-à-vis adoptions from China . The pilot will provide useful learning points on how such processes can be made more responsive and robust at the same time.
The Sandwiched Class
As we home in on the measures directed at births, we must also recognise that couples make these decisions taking into account a wide variety of factors.
One of those factors is the pressure felt by the sandwiched class – those who have to support both parents and children. This pressure has physical, financial and emotional dimensions. It is accentuated by a low birth rate, because each succeeding generation has fewer working adults to support a larger number of elderly, while concurrently having to face the rising cost and stress of bringing up the next generation.
Younger couples may therefore ask themselves whether there will be enough money, and enough hands, to responsibly support such care. And there will be trade-offs. Nuclear families make these questions even more pertinent, because there is a loss of intergenerational bonding, mutual help and economies of scale that the larger family group can supply. So there is a double whammy, with growing needs for both childcare and eldercare.
My point here is that we will have to further step up our actions with regards to enhancing the employability of older workers and addressing eldercare needs, as part of our total efforts to get better results at the birth end.
By providing concrete ways forward on the issue of enhancing the employability of older workers, eldercare and fostering intergenerational bonding and mutual support, we will help lower the overall pressure on the middle generation, and that might further increase the chances of their having more children.
Top-up through Immigration
Notwithstanding actions to increase and save births, I believe that it would still be a very uphill task to achieve replacement rate in the immediate future.
For this reason, I think it would be necessary for Government to consider additional ways to increase immigration. Of course, we are not interested in just bringing in the numbers. All along, the policy of Government has been to be careful and selective about granting permanent residency and citizenship, allowing them only for those who can and will add value to our society. I support such a prudent stance. However, we should examine further to see if there are ways of integrating our processes more closely to induce more potentially eligible foreigners, such as those who study and work here, to take up permanent residency. As Singapore 's drive to becoming an education hub takes shape, there should be more opportunities for us to do this. Australia , for instance, is able to benefit by augmenting its talent pool by tapping on its large body of foreign students.
The road from permanent residency to citizenship will certainly not be a straightforward one. We should review holistically the slate of benefits accruing to permanent residents versus citizens, and ensure that there is a sufficient difference. This is to give a stronger incentive to eligible permanent residents to seek citizenship at an earlier rather than later time.
Anchoring Singaporeans
And just as we must try all means to minimise the attrition on births and induct valuable immigrants, we must continue to do our utmost to retain the hearts of Singaporeans in their country and its future, wherever they may work. Indeed, Prime Minister spent a good part of his National Day Rally speech last year driving home this point.
Being pragmatic is as in-born a Singaporean trait as you can find one. So I believe that it ultimately boils down to how we make this place a land of opportunity, where talent and effort come together to make hopes and dreams come true – the very subject of this and previous Budgets.
Let us move ahead
Sir , Singapore has overcome many obstacles in our journey from third world to the first. At every turn of the road, we encountered new challenges and tough choices. Each time, we tackled the problems head-on with sound logic, always planning ahead, placing the long-term interests of our people in first place and adapting with the times. That was how we forged ahead and succeeded.
We must now move with equal resolve and speed to tackle the twin challenges of low birth rates and a rapidly aging population, and secure a better future for all Singaporeans.
Sir, I support the Motion.
